Washington is playing grand-strategy chess with real assets. Ottawa is still writing mood boards. In a two-and-a-half-hour raid last week, the United States removed Nicolás Maduro from power; in the days since, it has moved to put Venezuela’s oil under U.S. supervision and started planning how millions of barrels of heavy crude will be sold and routed in ways that serve American interests first. On top of that, Trump is once again saying, out loud, that Greenland will “become part of the U.S.” in his second term, treating an Arctic territory across from Canada’s North like a real-estate problem waiting to be solved.
Canada, meanwhile, remains welded to the role of reliable supplier and polite neighbour, governed by Liberals who talk about “economic security” like it’s a branding exercise. Mark Carney’s government inherited a fragile, underperforming economy and a dangerous over-reliance on the U.S. market, then walked straight into a Trump trade and resource shock without a real contingency plan. The uncomfortable truth is simple: Washington already behaves like Canada is optional, and every Venezuelan barrel and Arctic power play just pushes us further down the list of countries it needs to care about.
Under any serious government, that would trigger a national security rethink. Under this one, it triggers another taxpayer-funded trade mission and a glossy PDF.
The Venezuela Shock: Washington Builds a Spare Alberta
Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt holds some of the largest extra-heavy oil reserves on Earth, in the same category as Canada’s oil sands. Analysts have been saying for years that this crude is heavy, sour and tailor-made for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries in almost the same way Western Canadian Select is. That was an abstract competition when Venezuela’s industry was crippled by mismanagement and sanctions. It is not abstract anymore.
After a U.S. military strike captured Nicolás Maduro and effectively decapitated his regime, the White House immediately moved to put Venezuelan oil under American guidance. Trump and his energy team are openly pushing U.S. majors to revive production in fields that once shipped more than a million barrels per day, and to redirect up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude to U.S. refineries as part of his “drill, baby, drill” crusade. Gulf refiners like it because they get the heavy feedstock they were built for; the administration likes it because it reduces any future dependence on anyone else, including Canada.
Industry commentary is already spelling out the obvious: more Venezuelan heavy crude under U.S. control means more supply into the very refineries that already buy Canadian heavy at a steep discount. Gulf Coast plants have no reason to bid up Western Canadian Select when Washington is handing them alternative heavy barrels it can route by tanker straight into the Gulf. When your only real customer starts building a second supplier that looks geologically like you but comes with more political leverage on their side, that is not “competition,” that is your leverage being euthanised.
The Carney Liberals’ response so far has been textbook managerialism: acknowledge “volatility,” praise Canada’s “stability,” and point to long-term projects and ESG credentials. It is the language of a boardroom memo, not a country that just watched the Americans build a spare Alberta in the tropics.
Canada’s One-Customer Addiction in a Trade-War World
Strip away the rhetoric and look at the numbers. Canada is one of the world’s top crude oil exporters, and in 2023 a full 97 per cent of those crude exports went to the United States. Almost all of the new barrels that came online in 2024 and 2025 still flowed into the same system. Oil is not just another export; it is the backbone of our trade balance with the U.S. and a core support for federal and provincial revenues. When Washington sneezes, Ottawa doesn’t just catch a cold; it catches a revenue crisis.
Trans Mountain Expansion finally came online in May 2024, nearly tripling the system’s capacity to 890,000 barrels per day and opening more access to tidewater. That is a genuine win, and it has already eased pipeline congestion and enabled shipments to Asia and the U.S. West Coast at better prices. But even with TMX ramped up, Canadian crude exports remain overwhelmingly U.S.-centric; a few cargoes to China or India do not change the fact that our pipeline grid, our pricing, and our fiscal health are still chained to American demand and American policy.
Now drop that fragile structure into a trade war. Trump’s renewed tariff regime has already forced Canada into a messy mix of retaliation, partial climb-down and desperate sector-by-sector lobbying. The OECD’s latest survey of Canada spells it out: growth per person has been weak, productivity is sluggish, and rising trade barriers from our biggest partner are a major headwind. When your one big customer starts slapping duties on you while simultaneously arranging alternative suppliers, you are not a “trusted partner,” you are a hostage.
Carney talks a lot about diversification, and there are more Canadian cargoes heading to non-U.S. markets than before. But Ottawa is still operating like the U.S. will always fundamentally need us more than we need them, right as Washington is proving the opposite.
Greenland and the Arctic: Washington Reaches Over Canada’s Shoulder
On the Arctic front, Trump has dropped the diplomatic mask entirely. In public remarks this week he declared that the United States will acquire Greenland “whether they like it or not,” framing it as essential to keep Russia and China out. His team has floated everything from massive cash stipends for Greenlanders to thinly veiled threats of military intervention. It is Venezuela all over again, except this time the target sits directly across from Canada’s Arctic archipelago.
Legally, Greenland remains what it has been for years: a self-governing, autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, embedded in NATO and with its own parliament and government. International law still recognises Denmark’s sovereignty and Greenland’s right to decide its future, and European leaders have been very clear that any annexation attempt would be a frontal assault on that order. On paper, the rules are intact; everyone solemnly repeats that Greenland’s status is up to Greenland and Denmark.
But strategy is not written on paper; it is written on maps. A United States that controls Venezuelan heavy oil and pushes for a dominant role in Greenland is a United States that can project power across the Caribbean and the Arctic with far less need to indulge Canada. Greenland’s position on emerging Arctic sea routes and its existing U.S. base make it a natural forward operating platform for air, naval and missile assets. You do not talk about “owning” Greenland unless you intend to treat the Arctic as an American-managed space.
Ottawa’s answer has been dignified but timid. Canada has opened a consulate in Nuuk, talked up Inuit-to-Inuit ties and issued statements backing Danish and Greenlandic sovereignty. In other words, lots of sentiment and symbolism. Meanwhile, our own Arctic posture is still heavy on legal submissions about the continental shelf and light on ice-breakers, ports, and actual capability in the North. Washington is reaching over our shoulder for the top of the world, and Ottawa is still treating the Arctic like a backdrop for ministerial photo-ops.
Liberal “Economic Security”: Strategies Without Teeth
Carney came into office promising to “build the strongest economy in the G7” and has wrapped his agenda in the language of economic security. Budget 2025, branded as “Building Canada strong,” pledges hundreds of billions in capital over five years, with big talk of infrastructure, productivity and national-interest projects. His flagship One Canadian Economy Act is supposed to knock down internal trade barriers and accelerate major projects where the national interest is at stake. On paper, that looks like a government that understands the stakes.
Overlay that with the Critical Minerals Strategy and the new web of alliances and action plans. Ottawa’s official strategy aims to make Canada a “supplier of choice” for the minerals underpinning batteries, advanced manufacturing and defence supply chains, backed by billions in subsidies and new agreements with G7 partners. New announcements in 2025 touted dozens of projects, joint ventures and investment packages meant to unlock future mines and processing facilities, all wrapped in the usual talk about resilience and friend-shoring.
The problem is not that nothing is happening. The problem is that the underlying fundamentals are still going the wrong way. The OECD and private-sector analysts agree on the core picture: Canada’s real GDP per capita has stalled or fallen, productivity growth has been anaemic for more than a decade, and business investment per worker badly trails the United States. We are getting poorer per person even as the population grows, and we are doing it while layering on more complexity, more regulation and more political risk. That is not a growth model; it is a slow-motion downgrade.
Carney’s Budget 2025 introduces a “Productivity Super-Deduction” and accelerated write-offs for investment, which is a step in the right direction. But it sits on top of a tax and regulatory system that still punishes long-term capital and rewards lobbying for bespoke subsidies. You do not fix a productivity recession with a clever acronym and a press release; you fix it by ripping out the bureaucratic rot that created it.
A Real Economic-Security Strategy Would Look Very Different
If Canada were serious about securing its economic future in a world where the U.S. is actively reducing what little dependence it still has on us, Ottawa’s priorities would be brutally clear. First, energy would be treated as a hard-security file, not a climate talking point. That means stable, predictable rules for oil, gas and LNG; timelines that investors can trust; and a regulatory regime that recognises that heavy oil and gas revenues are what pay for the nice things politicians like to promise. Facing a U.S. that now effectively steers Venezuelan heavy crude, the sane move is not to retreat; it is to make sure Canadian barrels remain the most reliable and politically safe barrels on the market.
Second, the Arctic would move from the speeches section of Global Affairs to the core of defence and industrial policy. That means more than a handful of new ships over a decade; it means actual Arctic-capable infrastructure, year-round supply routes, serious surveillance and joint planning with Nordic allies who are just as alarmed by Washington’s Greenland obsession as we should be. You cannot claim Arctic sovereignty from a committee room in Ottawa while your supposed ally is openly talking about steamrolling another Arctic territory.
Third, Ottawa would finally treat the productivity crisis like the national emergency it is. That means deregulating interprovincial trade in practice, not just in speeches. It means making permitting times competitive with the United States instead of bragging about process. It means cutting corporate taxes and red tape where capital is actually mobile, rather than handing out boutique tax credits to whoever can hire the best lobbyist. The OECD has spent years telling Canada to open markets, cut barriers and boost competition; the Carney Liberals still prefer to subsidise around the problem.
None of this is particularly radical. It is just the kind of hard-headed realism you would expect from a country that understands its main customer has already stopped pretending it needs us. Instead, we have a Liberal government that is excellent at international conferences, excellent at unveiling frameworks, and strangely relaxed about the fact that Washington is now treating Venezuelan oil and Greenland as pieces on a board where Canada is not the main character.
Until Ottawa starts acting like Venezuela, Greenland, U.S. tariffs and our own productivity collapse are part of the same threat, Canada’s “economic security” is just a slogan. The Americans are busy downgrading what little attention they still pay to us. The Carney Liberals are busy hoping that somehow, that will still be enough.
Sources & Reference Material
- Crude Oil Industry Overview — Natural Resources Canada
- Market Snapshot: Trans Mountain Expansion eases pipeline constraints and increases exports to overseas markets — Canada Energy Regulator
- 2026 United States strikes in Venezuela — Wikipedia
- Venezuelan oil would boost US refiners, hurt Canadian producers — Reuters
- OECD Economic Surveys: Canada 2025 — OECD
